Markets Hold Ground Amid Global Cues; Key Levels to Watch in Nifty & Bank Nifty This Week

🗓️ Weekly Equity Bulletin (16th June – 20th June 2025)

🇮🇳 Market Overview

Last Week’s Performance:

• Nifty 50: Ended the week marginally higher after a volatile session, managing to hold above the 24500 mark.

• Bank Nifty: Showed relative strength and remained range-bound amid mixed sectoral cues.

Key Drivers of the Market Last Week:

1. US Federal Reserve Policy Statement: The Fed kept rates unchanged but remained cautious on inflation. Global equity markets responded positively, supporting domestic sentiment.

2. India CPI & IIP Data: May CPI inflation cooled to 4.75%, slightly better than expected, while April IIP growth came in at 5.2%, aiding market sentiment.

3. Monsoon Update: IMD reported better monsoon advancement, reducing concerns over agri and rural demand.

4. FII/DII Flows: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net buyers throughout the week, aiding liquidity.

5. Rupee & Crude Oil: Stability in INR and softening crude oil prices helped sectors like FMCG and autos.

🔮 Outlook for the Week Ahead

Key Events to Watch:

• US Jobless Claims & Fed Speeches – Any dovish tones could provide positive cues.

• Global Cues – Movement in US indices and crude oil will influence sentiments.

• Stock-specific Actions – As Q1FY26 pre-earnings commentary starts emerging, expect stock-specific movements.

📊 Technical Outlook – Weekly Analysis

🔵 Nifty 50 – Technical Perspective

The Nifty index exhibited consolidation during the previous week, trading within a tight range while maintaining a positive bias above the 24400 mark. Technically, the index is currently hovering near a crucial support zone around 24380, which coincides with the 20-day moving average and a previously established demand zone. This level has provided multiple rebounds in recent sessions, indicating strong buyer interest.

If Nifty fails to hold this 24380 support zone, it may witness a short-term breakdown, dragging it towards 24200, followed by a deeper correction up to 24050, where the next strong support lies. Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD are showing a neutral to mildly negative bias, suggesting the possibility of further consolidation or correction if support levels are breached.

On the flip side, a decisive breakout above 24850—which has acted as a ceiling for the past few sessions—can trigger a renewed uptrend. Sustained trading above this resistance can open the doors for a rally towards 25000, and if momentum strengthens, it may extend up to 25180. These levels align with Fibonacci extensions and previous swing highs.

Strategy for Traders:

Until a directional move emerges, traders are advised to adopt a buy-on-dips approach near 24450, keeping a tight stop loss below 24250, and eyeing upside targets of 24700 and 24880 in the near term.

🟢 Bank Nifty – Technical Perspective

Bank Nifty has been trading within a broad consolidation range, with visible resistance at 55800 and immediate support near 54800. This zone has held up for multiple sessions, and the index is trying to form a higher base. The 50-day EMA also aligns around 54800, adding to the strength of this support level.

A breakdown below 54800 could lead to an accelerated sell-off, dragging Bank Nifty towards 54400, and in an extended move, it could test the psychological level of 54000. This would indicate a loss of bullish momentum and shift the short-term trend in favor of bears.

However, a sustained move above 55800 will be a key breakout signal. If Bank Nifty manages to clear this level with strong volume, it could march ahead towards 56200 and further up to 56500, aided by renewed strength in major private and PSU banks.

Technical indicators are currently mixed: RSI is gradually rising, but MACD is yet to give a clear bullish crossover. Therefore, a breakout or breakdown from the current range will provide clearer directional cues.

Strategy for Traders:

A tactical buying opportunity exists around 55000, with a stop loss below 54600, targeting a move towards 55600 and 56000. Risk-reward remains favorable as long as the index holds above 54600.

⭐ Weekly Top Pick: 16/06/2025

CANBK FUTURES

• 📍 Entry: Around ₹111

• 🎯 Target: ₹115 / ₹118

• 🛑 Stop Loss: Below ₹107.50

***T&C Apply...